Impactos da política monetária sobre os diferentes setores industriais do Estado de Pernambuco

Abstract

Monetary policy plays an essential and determining role in the world economy, since its changes affect the productions of agriculture, of the industries and the sales of commerce. The understanding of how the economic players react can help in the formulation of economic policies. Thus, this dissertation examines whether a change in monetary policy reveals heterogeneous reactions on the industrial sectors of the state of Pernambuco, using the autoregressive vector model (VAR). The results obtained point to asymmetries in sectoral responses to changes in the conduct of monetary policy, with the most capital-intensive industries slowing the largest reactions. Searching for this evidence, a study of the two main transmission channels of monetary policy was carried out: the interest rate channel and the credit channel. The results of the cross-section model showed that the credit channel has a greater influence on several industrial sectors of the state of Pernambuco.